Continental allowed to join Star Alliance immunity pact

The Department of Transportation ignored a recommendation from the Department of Justice that Continental Airlines not be allowed to join nine other Star Alliance carriers in recieving antitrust immunity on international routes, and instead granted it permission earlier today. (Thanks for the heads up from Airline Route.)

The airlines (Air Canada, Austrian, bmi, LOT, Lufthansa, Scandinavian, Swiss, TAP, United and now Continental) can benefit from "limited and carefully considered" antitrust immunity on international routes, saying that "the transaction will not substantially reduce or eliminate competition."

In its ruling, the DOT also stated that the Continental's joining "does not materially alter the competitive landscape or increase overall market share to any significant degree," noting that Continental's move to Star allows for "a more competitive alliance in markets where oneworld or SkyTeam have a strong presence."

The DOT also noted that Continental currently overlaps with other Star carriers in fourteen city-pair markets, but stated that creating "carve outs" (routes that are not covered by the antitrust immunity) would "detract from the efficiencies that the alliance would otherwise create." Existing "carve outs," such as Chicago-Frankfurt, Washington-Frankfurt, San Francisco-Toronto and Chicago-Toronto, are still in effect. As for domestic competition (especially with United), the DOT concluded that "the benefits of the alliance outweigh the comparatively small risk of harm that could occur in domestic markets."

Of course, the whole argument of alliances being good for the consumer only stands if "metal neutrality" is practiced. "Metal neutrality" is when airlines that jointly market services aren't picky about who actually operates the flight (and thus keep more of the revenue). For example, if I wanted to fly from Boston to Frankfurt as seamlessly as possible, I could take a direct Lufthansa flight, or instead fly United through Washington Dulles. If I book my ticket with United Airlines, under "metal neutrality" they'd put me on the Lufthansa flight, even though they'd make much less money than if they put me on their flight through Washington. If things are kept metal-neutral, the DOT argues, then carriers won't spend time worrying about making sure that a passenger flies on their airline; instead, they can work on syncing their flight schedules and sharing financial benefits and losses, which give them incentive to make things as convenient as possible to the passenger.

photo by James Willamor on Flickr, licensed under the Creative Commons

Problems ahead for global airline alliance immunity

The Department of Justice recently expressed objections to the antitrust immunity agreement that nine Star Alliance carriers (plus Continental, which will be a Star member later this year) are seeking. The airlines, which include United, Lufthansa, Air Canada, SAS and Swiss (but notably, not US Airways), have been looking to obtain global immunity from antitrust laws for some time now. In April, the Department of Transportation gave the carriers a tentative green light, but last Friday, the DOJ instead called on the DOT to "deny the broad requested immunity and instead grant a more limited immunity" - probably just a more limited transatlantic cooperation.

Right now, Continental technically competes with Star Alliance members on its routes, but under the proposed immunity agreement, that competition would be eliminated. The DOJ went further in its explanation, saying that Asian and Latin American routes flown by United and Continental would probably see price increases, as the airlines would no longer be competing. And the DOJ also took fault at some transatlantic routes; Continental has a pretty extensive list of European destinations, and the DOJ said that competition on some routes between the US and some of those cities would decrease substantially.

So, what implications does this have? First, it shows that the federal government is getting more serious about enforcing anti-trust policies, especially under the new presidential administration (as had been expected). Secondly, it could have serious effects for a similar agreement that rival alliance oneworld is trying to put together, and could be in the shape of things to come for such global agreements. And the DOJ statement also goes after cooperation between United and Continental on domestic US routes; "a sweeping grant of immunity raises significant concerns about harm to domestic competition," it said - something that might indicate obstacles to a potential United-Continental merger.

photo by caribb

S7 Airlines to join oneworld alliance

photo courtesy S7

Russian carrier S7 (formerly known as Siberian Airlines) has announced today that it will officially join the oneworld alliance next year. British Airways has 'sponsored' the airline, which is Russia's largest domestic airline and a large player on international routes, too. S7 recently switched to an all-Western built fleet (no more smoky Russian jets) and is quickly expanding. Willie Walsh, CEO of British Airways, released a boilerplate statement with the usual "S7 is a perfect fit for oneworld," etc., etc., but also said that "oneworld's priority is the quality rather than quantity of member airlines." That's probably a subtle dig at oneworld rival Star Alliance, which is at least twice as large in terms of number of airlines. But perhaps when it comes to Russia, Walsh needn't be worried. The S7 announcement leaves Star as the only alliance without a significant presence in Russia (Aeroflot is a member of SkyTeam).

And speaking of Star, Greek carrier Aegean Airlines will become a full member of the alliance next year.

Air France and Delta finalize joint venture

A Boeing 777 in Air France's new livery. Photo courtesy Air France

Air France/KLM and Delta yesterday put the finishing touches on a $12 billion-a-year joint venture deal that would allow them to operate as a single carrier on North Atlantic routes. The pact extends a previous joint venture that KLM and Northwest have had since 1997. Air France merged with KLM in 2004, and Delta recently took over Northwest, allowing for a four-way alliance (all are already members of the SkyTeam alliance).

The deal is a revenue- and profit-sharing venture, and will have antitrust immunity (something that American and British Airways are seeking right now). It affects more than 200 daily transatlantic flights to over 400 destinations in Europe and North America, or around 27% of total trans-Atlantic capacity. It also allows them to more effectively combine operations. For example, if both Delta and Air France have a flight from New York to Paris, but both flights are only 1/3 full, they can be combined and flown on one aircraft. Marketing, pricing, and ticketing will also be shared, and these result in very impressive cost savings (about $150 million per airline).

As previously mentioned, American, Iberia and British Airways in the oneworld alliance and United, Lufthansa (and soon Continental) in the Star Alliance are working on similar deals. This means that airlines without an alliance affiliation - like Virgin Atlantic - might suffer as a result. And while this means that Air France and Delta are cooperating even more closely, they can't actually merge - under US law, a foreign company can't own more than 25% of a US airline, although this rule might end in the future.

Some slides from the Air France/Delta news conference in Paris on Wednesday:

Continental gets approval to join Star Alliance

photo by bribriTO

Continental Airlines yesterday received a tentative OK to join Star Alliance, although the US Department of Transportation will require Continental, United, Air Canada and Lufthansa to release an 'annual report' on the alliance. Star Alliance is already by far the largest airline alliance, and the addition of Continental just makes it even bigger. As such, the US government has expressed concern about the impact on competition - and so has Delta, Continental's current partner in the SkyTeam alliance, which has complained that the impact on US domestic routes would be too large, given that United and US Airways are already members.

Continental to join Star, link with United

photo by sea turtle

Even after merger talks between United and Continental fell through a few months ago, the two airlines are still interested in cooperating - yesterday, they announced plans to start codesharing and for Continental to join Star Alliance, of which United is a member. According to an email sent out to Mileage Plus members, United expects the deal to start sometime in 2009.

It remains to be seen what this means for US Airways, which has been a Star member for a few years now. It's possible that it could remain in Star, but having three US airlines in the same alliance could lead to some overlap.

United would consider leaving Star Alliance

photo by striatic

According to United Airlines CEO Glenn Tilton, if United had to leave Star Alliance in order to finalize a merger, it was prepared to do so. "You can assume that absolutely everything goes into the mix of consideration," he said in a Chicago Tribune article published yesterday. The quote has sparked rampant speculation on internet forums as to whether or not United would actually seriously consider withdrawing from Star. United is one of Star's founding members, and is close partners with another founding member, Lufthansa. United makes a lot of money off of the feed that it gets from Star members (and vice versa).

There's no reaction yet from Lufthansa, arguably United's closest member. United does provide Lufthansa with a significant amount of connecting traffic, and losing United wouldn't be good. Lufthansa has covered its bases in the US market a bit with last year's investment in jetBlue, but jetBlue can't give them anywhere near the same amount of feed that United can. Perhaps Tilton's comments might be meant to scare Lufthansa into making an investment in United (as it did in jetBlue) - in this case, United's ties with Lufthansa and Star would probably be stronger than ever.

Of course, all of this is assuming that United is actually serious about leaving Star. United will probably remain in Star as long as it is financially viable; if a better alternative arises, United will probably do the sensible thing and 'go for it', even if this means dropping in Star in favor of another alliance. (A United-Delta or United-Continental merger might mean that the airline could join SkyTeam, but this seems more likely with the former.) For United, the most important item on the agenda is making money, and if this means merging with another carrier and leaving Star, then a United-less Star could indeed be a possibility.

Lufthansa to buy stake in jetBlue

jetBlue announced earlier today that Lufthansa would "make a minority equity investment" in jetBlue. The agreement between the two airlines states that Lufthansa will buy about 42 million newly issued shares of jetBlue (19% of the airline) at $7.27 a share, about $300 million. Lufthansa would also get a seat on jetBlue's Board of Directors. (Per US law, Lufthansa would be limited to under 25% voting rights.)

Lufthansa CEO Wolfgang Mayrhuber said that Lufthansa was "very pleased to become an investor in JetBlue" and that "this investment presents Lufthansa with a compelling opportunity to invest in the U.S. point-to-point carrier market as the industry continues to evolve." Dave Barger, jetBlue CEO, was pleased with "this significant endorsement of JetBlue's franchise from one of the most respected leaders in global aviation" and said that the investment "will also improve our balance sheet and give us greater financial flexibility as we move into 2008."

In a conference call this afternoon, it was revealed that Lufthansa was the one that approached jetBlue (sometime during the late summer). The deal should close sometime during the first quarter in 2008. This seems to have been the right time for Lufthansa to move in for a deal; shares of jetBlue are relatively cheap at the moment, and the airline could use some extra cash. jetBlue has had some trouble over the past years with high oil prices and increased competition (especially now that Virgin America's competing in the transcontinental market). Shares of jetBlue have fallen by half since last February's mess at JFK involving passengers stranded on planes for several hours, an event which damaged the airline's reputation. In addition, with the low value of the dollar versus the euro, Lufthansa's getting a pretty good bargain.

As of now, the two airlines haven't said that they would cooperate in any areas other than "operation cooperation". No code-share deal was announced, either, and besides, jetBlue's reservation system doesn't allow for code-sharing (at least not yet). If the airlines were to integrate schedules, Lufthansa would certainly benefit from US domestic feed at JFK. Then again, Lufthansa's premium passengers might not want to go from Lufthansa's premium classes of service to jetBlue's all-economy service (even if they do have DirecTV).

But there are still a few unanswered questions. Lufthansa is close partners with United Airlines and US Airways, all three of which are Star Alliance members. It's unknown if Lufthansa's US partners had any say-so in the deal or not, or what the potential ramifications of the deal are for the two. And there's no word yet if this could eventually lead to jetBlue becoming a Star Alliance member. United has been rumored to be interested in jetBlue as a potential merger partner, and if Lufthansa were to increase their stake to 25% and if United were to buy 26%, then the two airlines would have a controlling interest in jetBlue. Right now Lufthansa is limited to 25% ownership, like all foreign carriers, but if this cap is lifted (and with the Open Skies deal announced earlier this year, it might be soon), then Lufthansa might eventually purchase a controlling stake in jetBlue.

United's "urge to merge"

The world of airline mergers has been buzzing since last week's report that United Airlines and Delta Airlines were being pushed by Pardus Capital Management (which owns a sizable stake in both airlines) to merge. Delta CEO Richard Anderson stated that "there have been no talks with United regarding any type of consolidation transaction and there are no such ongoing discussions." In a press release, Delta said that it "will not speculate on possible airline consolidation".

It's no secret that United has been shopping around for a merger partner for some time. They haven't bought any new planes in quite some time, and United has relatively thin profit margins and high debt.

That said, rumors have been flying for the last few years that United would find a merger partner. These partners have included Continental (which already said no) and Northwest (which wouldn't work out because the two airlines both have strong Midwest hubs) - almost everyone except American (a United-American merger couldn't happen because the combined airline would be too big). The latest to crop up on the aviation forums involves jetBlue, since the two airlines have complementary fleets/networks. United would use jetBlue as an opportunity to become a player again at JFK, which would tie in nicely with international feed from Star Alliance carriers and make it more competitive on the East Coast. And a United-jetBlue merger would also put an end to the fight at Washington-Dulles between the two airlines.

But a United-jetBlue merger isn't too likely, and any merger wouldn't be a cure-all fix for United. Even though United may be holding out on buying new planes to attract merger partners, they're going to need to upgrade eventually to keep up with competitors. And employee-management relations aren't very good, either. Merger or no merger, United really needs to address these issues (and others) if it wants to remain a viable competitor in the industry.